Dive Brief:

• Led by utility-scale additions, the United States' solar market is poised to grow 119% this year, according to new data from GTM Research, with the firm predicting cumulative capacity will surpass 100 GW in the next five years.
• The firm predicts 16 GW of solar will be installed in the U.S. in 2016, more than doubling the record-breaking 7.3 GW installed in last year.
• Extension of the federal investment tax credit has staved off some risk for projects, and GTM said this year state-level drivers and risks will be the focus of both small and large-scale solar developments.

Dive Insight:

Utility-scale solar installations are expected to drive growth of the industry this year, but GTM stressed that the residential and commercial sectors are growing as well. While utility-scale installations will make up almost three-quarters of installations for the year, the residential and commercial markets "will also experience strong growth in 2016."

In absolute numbers, GTM pointed out that the United States is on the verge of its millionth solar installation. The firm's "U.S. Solar Market Insight Report 2015 Year in Review" can be found here. 

“This is a new energy paradigm, and the solar industry officially has a seat at the table with the largest energy producers,” Solar Energy Industries Associatio President and CEO Rhone Resch said in a statement. “Because of the strong demand for solar energy nationwide, and smart public policies like the Investment Tax Credit and net energy metering, hundreds of thousands of well-paying solar jobs will be added in the next few years, benefiting both America’s economy and the environment.”

New community solar programs, new utility-led efforts to enable corporate procurement of offsite solar, and ongoing debate over the value of rooftop solar, "are three key trends that will drive U.S. solar demand throughout the year."

“In 2016, the rooftop solar economic outlook will depend not only on favorable outcomes to net energy metering debates, but also on customer-wide and solar-specific rate structure reforms that can impact savings from solar,” said GTM Research Senior Analyst Cory Honeyman.

GTM also said that PV demand will be supported by a community solar projects in the hundreds of megawatts, Massachusetts and Minnesota will collectively install more than 100 megawatts of community solar this year.  And next year, residential and non-residential PV markets are both expected to continue to grow, but the report cautions that U.S. solar "is still expected to drop on an annual basis due to the pull-in of utility PV demand in 2016."

There will be a "reset" in 2017, Honeyman said, though the market will still reach 10 GW.  “But between 2018 and 2020, the extension of the ITC will reboot market growth for utility PV and support continued growth in distributed solar as a growing number of states reach grid parity.”