Dive Brief:

• With or without new carbon regulation, the nation's natural gas pipeline infrastructure will grow slowly in the next 15 years according to a new report from Advanced Energy Economy.
• There will be a brief move towards natural gas as new regulations shutter coal-fired generation, according to the report, but ultimately renewable energy and efficiency measures are expected to moderate needs for more gas infrastructure.
• Compared to a base case, AEE found pipeline expenditures would rise 3% to 7% through 2030.

Dive Insight:

There has been much debate surrounding the nation's generation and transmission system, and whether or not it is sufficiently robust to handle new carbon mandates. Generally speaking, reports are showing shuttering significant numbers of coal facilities will not seriously threaten reliability and the cost increases will be relatively modest, though the impacts are expected to vary based on location.

Now, a new report from AEE asks the same questions about the nation's natural gas infrastructure – and comes up with about the same answer.

”With competition from renewable energy and energy efficiency, which are also cost effective, states are likely to adopt a diverse portfolio of measures for compliance rather than rely exclusively on increased natural gas generation,” Malcolm Woolf, senior vice president for policy and government affairs for Advanced Energy Economy, said in a statement. “This report shows that, even if low natural gas prices lead to higher natural gas usage, pipeline expansions already planned and under way will be sufficient to handle most of the need.”

AEE provided a series of assumptions to ICF International, which then modeled out a series of scenarios. The two groups' analysis looked at pipeline expansions between 2016 and 2030 without the CPP, and compared that to incremental capacity requirements prompted by the new regulations. Even under a low-price “stress test” scenario, additional pipeline investment needs were found to be modest.

In both CPP scenarios examined, the report finds incremental pipeline expenditures through 2030 are relatively, ranging from 3% to 7%. 

“There is no reason to see natural gas pipeline capacity as a threat to electric system reliability as a result of CPP implementation,” Woolf said.