Dive Brief:
- The United States electric grid will retire 10 GW of power this year, while adding 55 GW of mostly wind, solar and gas capacity for a total net addition of 45 GW, according to SNL Energy.
- Roughly 12 GW of coal capacity will be retired or converted, and non-renewable energy will account for more than 99% of retirements. About 7 GW will undergo fuel conversions, accoridng to the Data Dispatch.
- Overall power sales are expected to remain steady this year, but SNL's generation data highlights the rapid changes in how demand will be met. Coal's dominance has been challenged by cheaper gas this year, and carbon-free generation makes up the bulk of new additions.
Dive Insight:
SNL Energy last week published a Data Dispatch that illustrates the dramatic shift away from coal and the increasing pivot towards carbon-free sources as new gas generation lags even expected solar additions.
According to SNL, the United States will build almost 21 GW of wind capacity alone, this year. Solar will add almost 19 GW, and gas about 13 GW. A little more than 1 GW of new nuclear capacity is also expected to come online. Coal retirements and conversions will be about 12 GW; coal makes up almost 60% of all retiring capacity this year, with gas adding another 30%.
The predictions mark a stark turnaround since the Obama adminsitration's finalized Clean Power Plean was released. Prior to the greenhouse gas rule being finalized, the U.S. Energy information Administration had predicted that by 2040 the U.S. generation mix would still lean heavily on fossil fuels if more regulatory action wasn't taken.
Cheap has gas helped pressure coal out of some markets, but even natural gas, once heralded as the bridge fuel, appears to be getting left behind. New gas additions come in only third, behind wind and solar. And there is even some doubt as to whether gas or coal generated more of the United States' energy last year.
Gas overtook coal in five of the first 10 months last year, though coal is still expected have generated more power. Nuclear generation continues to produce about 20% of the nation's power, though only 1.15 GW of new capacity are expected online this year, though no retirements are expected.