Dive Brief:
- New York’s electricity demand could increase by 50% to 90% over the next two decades, driven by the electrification of heating and transportation and the development of energy intensive projects and industry, the state’s grid operator said in a 20-year outlook published July 25.
- Meeting that demand means installed capacity will need to triple from 37 GW today to 100 GW to 130 GW by 2040, the New York Independent System Operator said. There is also a need for voltage support facilities and transmission investment in the Western and Northern regions of the state.
- Between 20 GW and 40 GW of dispatchable emissions-free resources, or DEFRs, will need to replace 25 GW of fossil-fuel generation by 2040, the grid operator said. Those could include long-duration batteries, small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen-powered generators and fuel cells.
Dive Insight:
New York’s Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act was passed in 2019 and requires the state to achieve a 100% zero-emission electricity system by 2040. That will require development of a significant amount of DEFRs, but the grid operator concedes the timeline for those resources remains uncertain.
“While essential to the grid of the future, such DEFR technologies are not commercially viable today at the necessary scale,” NYISO said in its 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook. “Even assuming that they are commercially viable, there remains significant work in implementation and logistics that must be overcome to economically justify transitioning the dispatchable fleet to some combination of new technologies in the next 15 years.”
“The research, development, and construction lead times necessary for these technologies may extend beyond the policy mandate timeline, in which case other existing generation technologies may be required to remain in operation to continue to maintain a reliable system,” the report said.
Economic development over the next two decades will lead to multiple new large loads interconnecting to the New York grid, mostly consisting of manufacturing facilities and data centers, along with potential hydrogen production operations.
The state is also expected to shift from a summer- to winter-peaking system around 2036. “This drastic change is largely driven by the electrification of essential energy-consuming systems, primarily building heating and electric vehicle charging,” the ISO said.
In the last two decades just three large load projects with a total capacity of 310 MW have been connected to the New York system through the grid operator’s load interconnection procedures, according to the report. But the number of new load interconnection requests “has grown dramatically” in recent years, with 15 projects representing 3 GW of load requesting to connect between 2025 and 2030, the ISO said.
The report’s base case includes a 480-MW Micron semiconductor manufacturing facility in Onondaga County coming online in 2026; 600 MW to power a Science, Technology & Advanced Manufacturing Park in Genesee County later this year; and a 110-MW green hydrogen facility in St. Lawrence County coming online next year.
The ability to move power around the state, and to import electricity from Canada, will also be vital.
“Historic levels” of investment in New York’s transmission system are happening, in particular to meet the state’s 2035 target of developing 9 GW of offshore wind.
“Recent transmission investments are making great strides towards the full integration of renewable power across New York State,” Zach Smith, ISO senior vice president of system and resource planning, said in a statement. “More will be needed, however, to maintain system reliability and achieve public policies.”
Along with the development of large-scale generation, New York is also looking to distributed resources to meet its clean energy goals.
In April, the grid operator launched the nation’s first program to integrate aggregations of distributed energy resources into wholesale markets. NYISO forecasts show distributed generation in the state roughly doubling over the next three decades, as it moves towards a power mix that includes 70% renewable generation by 2030 and 100% clean power by 2040.
