Dive Brief:
- New England could require a “vast renewable build-out” — to the tune of 97 GW of new wind, solar and battery capacity by 2050 — to achieve state decarbonization goals, the region’s grid operator said in a draft report published Aug. 16.
- Most of the region’s six states have set policies to reduce emissions at least 80% from 1990 levels by mid-century, using renewable energy to electrify heating and transportation systems. That will shift New England peak load from summer to winter by the mid-2030s and create large disparities in electricity demand between mild and severe cold weather years, ISO New England concluded in its Economic Planning for the Clean Energy Transition, or EPCET, study.
- Long-duration storage “may help meet high demand during shorter cold snaps,” but the region will also need dispatchable, zero-carbon generation such as synthetic natural gas or small modular reactors, the grid operator said. By 2045, wind and solar resources meet just 10 GW of the 51 GW peak gross load during peak winter demand, according to the report’s modeling.
Dive Insight:
New England is planning for a largely renewable future, but the region’s peak winter demand will require development of clean resources not dependent on the weather, the grid operator said
“As wind and solar resources increase, overall electricity supply will also become far more variable, since it will depend much more on the weather than it does in today’s grid,” the ISO said in a Thursday blog post. The analysis considers the use of synthetic natural gas and advanced nuclear “and finds that such resources may reduce overall system costs by reducing the need for new renewable capacity,” the grid operator said.
A renewable buildout that also includes 15.1 GW of SMRs achieves the states’ 2050 decarbonization targets while requiring 57% less new renewable capacity than the base policy scenario, according to the report. Adding almost 20 GW of SNG-capable units reduces the need for new wind, solar and storage by 37%, the ISO said.
“Hydrogen presents a possible alternative to SNG, but was not selected for analysis in EPCET due to the lack of geographically feasible storage locations in New England, and need for new pipeline infrastructure,” the ISO noted.
The use of SNG and SMRs reduces renewables curtailment and costs, the report said.
Overall capital costs of a build-out that includes SMRs are 33% lower than the base case, according to the report. "Due to high fuel costs, production costs would be higher in an SNG build-out than a non-SNG system — but total costs would be lower, since the system would require a smaller renewable build-out,” the report concludes.
The region will need to expand its transmission system alongside new renewables. To address those issues, the ISO in February published its 2050 Transmission Study. It showed New England needs $16 billion to $26 billion in transmission investments by mid-century to meet state policy goals.