Dive Brief:

• The Midcontinent Independent System Operator is projecting a 5 GW shortfall in firm generation to meet projected load this summer, and it is working with member companies "to prepare for the worst-case scenarios."
• MISO discussed its generation and transmission assessment during a summer 2022 readiness workshop on Wednesday. The grid operator is forecasting a summer peak of 124 GW, with about 119 GW of "projected regularly available generation."
• The need for controlled power shutoffs will depend on the availability of non-firm resources like capacity imports and wind generation, MISO officials said. 

Dive Insight:

The dire assessment released Wednesday shouldn't come as a surprise, said MISO officials.

“The seasonal assessment aligns with the cleared resources identified in the 2022-2023 Planning Resource Auction, which indicated capacity shortfalls in both the north and central regions of MISO and leaving those areas at increased risk of temporary, controlled outages to preserve the integrity of the bulk electric system,” MISO Executive Director of Market Operations JT Smith said in a statement.

The auction resulted in capacity prices jumping to $236.66/MW-day from $5/MW-day the previous year. The grid is experiencing higher projected electricity use alongside reduced power supply.

Heading into this summer, "emergency resources and non-firm energy imports will be needed to maintain system reliability," according MISO's presentation. "Under typical demand and generation outages, insufficient firm resources are projected to be available to cover summer peak forecasts."

The grid operator is anticipating a warmer-than-normal summer and an active hurricane season, and it is also monitoring for drought conditions.

According to MISO's forecast, probable load in July will peak at 124 GW, with only 118.5 GW of probable generation. Smaller shortfalls are projected in June and August as well.

MISO said its summer preparations include "training and conducting exercises with member companies to prepare for the worst-case scenarios and to implement lessons learned and best practices." Unplanned outages and other variables "may require additional actions to maintain grid reliability" during real-time operations, the operator said.

“We closely monitor the many challenges the summer season can bring and coordinate with our members and other grid operators for situational awareness,” MISO Executive Director of System Operations Jessica Lucas said in a statement. “Our members provide us with the details to determine our operational needs and we anticipate tight operating conditions this summer based on their insights.”