MISO: Generation shortfall possible by 2018

Dive Brief:

MISO and the the Organization of MISO States (OMS) have released their third annual resource adequacy survey, finding adequate capacity for 2017 with potential shortages in 2018 and beyond due to plant retirements, EnergyWire reports.
The assessment, issued last week, finds the region should be able to meet peak demand next year, with an adequate safety margin. A surplus of 2.7 GW is available, but the grid operator warned that amount could be reduced to 900 MW if recently-announced Southern Illinois generation retirements occur.
The survey also found MISO locations where the reserve margin will slip below requirements in 2017, but import needed capacity from neighboring zones should be available to meet demand.

Dive Insight:

MISO markets are tightening as generator shutdowns threaten reserve requirements.

"Retirements in excess of new generation are driving supply to tighten in the region" said MISO CEO John Bear in a statement. "We will continue to support our state regulators and members as they take necessary actions to ensure continued resource adequacy in 2018 and beyond," he added.

The operator said announced retirements, as well as MISO resources committed to other markets, could play a "significant role" the region’s ability to meet future capacity needs.

In 2018, MISO's presentation shows a potential shortfall of 400 MW, depending on resources available, with a 2.6 GW reserve shortfall possible by 2021.

In the MISO region, load serving entities, with oversight by the states, are responsible for resource adequacy. "State and local authorities and regulated utilities undertake rigorous planning efforts to ensure future resource adequacy," Sally Talberg, President of OMS and Chair of the Michigan Public Service Commission, said in a statement. "The OMS-MISO survey is a great tool and provides a useful snapshot in time for these active planning efforts."

Talberg also spoke with EnergyWire, telling the news outlet that "this is a crucial period given the number of generating plants that have retired recently and are expected to retire." On whole, the MISO survey anticipates than 4 GW of retirements in the next year.

\MISO has proposed a new market design for the region to help signal power plant owners when to invest in new or existing capacity.