IHS: Global solar PV to reach 53 GW in 2015, Calif. to become global leader

Dive Brief:

Global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations will reach between 53 GW and 57 GW by the end of 2015 with global demand rising between 16% and 25%, according to a new IHS market forecast. The energy research firm predicts California will become a global leader in solar market share, with more than 10% of generation from the end of this year coming from the sun.
The largest markets will remain in China, Japan, and the U.S. but the biggest growth will come from China, the U.S., and India .Emerging solar PV markets in Chile and South Africa will mature and reach 1 GW of installed capacity, IHS concluded. Other emerging growth markets in 2015 will be Jordan, the Philippines and Honduras. Solar growth in Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey is uncertain.
Distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems, those of 100 kW or less, will be 30% of the projected 15.7 GW of global DPV installations in 2015, up from 2014’s 13.2 GW, IHS forecasts.

Dive Insight:

Japan will be the biggest DPV market, accounting for almost 70% of installations. The U.S. will install over 2.2 GW, with net-metered third-party owned systems leading the growth. DPV installations in China will reach 4.7 GW in 2015.

IHS concluded that 2014 was an “inflection point” in global solar market development. “Through mergers, acquisitions and bankruptcies, the supplier base consolidated further,” said IHS senior solar research director Ash Sharma. “All signs point to a strengthening recovery of the solar industry in 2015, even if the recovery itself remains incredibly fragile.”

Concentrated photovoltaic solar (CPV) is expected to finally begin achieving its potential by growing 37% with an estimated 250 MW of new installations. That growth is expected every year through 2020, justifying SunPower’s investment in a one GW U.S. LCPV manufacturing facility.

Grid-connected PV with storage capacity is projected to triple globally. Installations are expected to reach 775 MW in 2015. Grid-connected commercial-industrial solar-plus-storage systems are already potentially viable economically.