In 10 years leading Grid Forward, I’ve witnessed utilities and energy organizations advancing today’s defining grid technologies, business models and markets. Some innovations such as artificial intelligence were almost unthinkable a decade ago. But for all the mind-bending progress, improving both energy affordability and reliability remains a stubborn challenge. These dual objectives must guide the way forward as we continue to modernize the grid for tomorrow’s challenges.

The Smart Grid is here, now what?

A decade ago the term “smart grid” was generally synonymous with automated meters. Remember the days when utilities sent a meter reader to every residence and business to record and bill them on their usage? At the end of 2023, more than 80% of utility meters (146 million) in North America are now smart meters. Utilities have faster, more accurate digital readings of energy usage and have started to leverage this information for various benefits.

In 2014, the electric grid industry was just experimenting with advanced monitoring solutions for critical grid infrastructure. There is now a wide deployment of a range of sensors and better situational awareness of critical electrical assets. Advanced forecasting is leveraged in many aspects of the energy systems from generation levels to demand forecasts. Management systems with a profusion of acronyms (ADMS, DERMS, OMS, SCADA…) are expanding into many parts of the system, pulling data in from various assets. Workforce automation is tracking all types of grid priorities. Utilities are even flying drones to collect grid data and using advanced imaging that was not possible just five years ago. 

But what are utilities doing with all this data? It is still rather rare to use predictive analytics for grid assets that can identify failures, faults or other issues before they happen. Many grid assets are still replaced on set schedules rather than based on their actual health or performance. Utilities still roll trucks with crews to identify the location of problems. And many customers still get a bill largely on flat rate usage at the end of the month. It is critical to deepen the network of meters, sensors, and monitoring solutions to automate controls on the grid and make data-informed investment decisions. Turning electric grid data into actionable information is something we have the tools to do. Now it’s time to make that happen.

The grid is digital but not digitized

How utilities store and process data has also advanced. A decade ago, many incumbent grid operators did not use cloud solutions for their operations. That reluctance has largely evaporated. Utilities are leveraging the benefits of scale and expertise offered by major cloud providers and even some of the application layers they make possible.

However, we have barely begun to leverage the potential of automated analysis for optimizing the grid. Grid system capacity runs much lower than necessary in most locations. And even where grid constraints exist, digital analytical tools are not being used to optimize the near-term alternatives — or even to streamline the difficult and costly build options.

There is much talk about the promise of AI for grid planning and operations. Streamlining complex processes (regulatory proceedings, permitting, compliance, interconnections, etc.) seems like an area of promise. It will be a costly endeavor to fully duplicate the complexities of the physical grid and model scenarios in a virtual environment, but taking those steps may prove to be prudent. Just look at the cost of impacts to the grid from recent wildfires, storms and other major disruptions. By leveraging digital simulations, utilities could have been better prepared for these inevitable events.

Changing generation mix, same old grid

Over the last decade, many areas of the country have seen significant shifts in how energy is generated. For example, non-hydro renewables accounted for 8.3% of the energy generation in 2014 and have since nearly doubled to 15.7% by the end of 2023. Energy storage is becoming economically viable and rapidly accelerating: since 2014 we’ve seen a 97-fold increase in capacity to 15.5 GW, with 70% found in California and Texas. At the same time, coal’s share of electricity generation has dropped from over 40% in the early 2010s to an estimated 16% this year. Natural gas generation has stepped in to help meet peak demand and balance the grid, growing from 29% in 2014 to 45% of generation last year.

In addition, consumers are getting into the game with new energy devices at home:

• Millions of smart thermostats and other grid-interactive devices have been sold.
• Rooftop solar is well into double digits of residences in many locations, with a growing share in home energy storage systems.
• Sales of battery-only and plug-in EV sales in the U.S. have risen from less than 1% in 2014 to 9.1% in Q2 of 2024.

Still, the vast majority of our electrical generation comes from centralized sources. Aggregated distributed assets, scaled-up demand-side programs and other edge solutions are still small to nearly non-existent in most locations. For the requirements of our grid, we must significantly build out and leverage all these resources.

This new generation puzzle works best with a “two-way” grid that can dynamically integrate and optimize both supply and demand. We knew this 10 years ago, but that grid is not yet a reality. Even so, the grid keeps balancing supply and demand in near real-time, which seems like a modern miracle. We have better equipment for controlling energy flow (“switchgear”), smarter systems for integrating solar and batteries (“inverters”), hardened distribution systems and better organization of all these assets (“sectionalization”).

To succeed in the 21st century, we not only need to replace an aging grid but also build new infrastructure to orchestrate all the energy sources at our disposal. We need a grid that has orders of magnitude more automated flexibility than we have installed today. All these solutions are commercially available and ready to install.

Securing our grid remains just as important

In 2014, cybersecurity was already a priority. We witnessed attacks on digital infrastructure in other sectors (finance, retail, etc.) and I knew the critical infrastructure of the grid was an attractive target. In the war in Ukraine, both physical and cyber-attacks on the electric grid are a top strategy of the Russian aggressors. Physical attacks on the grid have been on the rise even in North America. As we continue to modernize, securing the grid from diverse physical and cyber threats midway through the 2020s is as important as it has ever been. We can never take our eye off the importance of best-in-class security. 

Scotty, we need more power!

There is one change over this decade that has caught many by surprise: energy demand is rising again. In the 2010s, the energy industry as a whole saw low or flat load growth due to energy efficiency programs, the impact of offshore manufacturing and lingering economic impacts from the Great Recession. With a resurgence of domestic industry, transportation electrification and data processing, the next decade looks poised for stronger power load growth than in previous decades. Much of the growth in power usage is being driven by the use of AI in data centers. Investing in all aspects of the grid now to meet the demand is critical to a future that will be ever more reliant on an always available, resilient electric grid.

The ultimate goals are still the same

The electric grid has been significantly modernized in the last ten years. Most meters are automated, and monitoring critical grid elements provides more accurate and useful forecasting. Energy markets are expanding in reach and economic impact. Technical standards are emerging to make it easier to integrate various distributed assets which helps break down silos across the industry. As Grid Forward has grown, we’ve witnessed different regions and stakeholders coming together in a multi-disciplinary approach to solve some of the grid’s biggest challenges.

However, in the past decade the average residential energy price in the U.S. has risen from 12.52 cents/kWh to 16 cents/kWh — an increase of 28%. While this is in line with overall inflation over that period, electricity costs are a big impact to the average American.

During that time, the average duration of electric power interruptions has also nearly doubled from under 4 hours in 2014 to over 7 hours in 2021. While there are more on-site resilience solutions from backup generators, storage, microgrids and other capabilities, these options are too expensive and out of reach for many.

It is critical that even as the grid is straining under the immense impacts of aging infrastructure, increasing climate disasters and surging load growth,  we must work to achieve affordability and reliability as a core outcome. Our grid is and will continue to be the backbone of not only our economy but modern society. Any resources that businesses and individuals don’t have to spend on their power can go right into other aspects of their work and lives. It’s the great responsibility of all who make and deliver power to humbly remember this.