Gas-fired power plant additions have surged this year, but solar power is poised to boom in the United States, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s most recent infrastructure report.
Nearly 4,470 MW of natural gas-fired generation came online in the first four months this year, up from 551 MW in the same period in 2022, FERC said in the report released earlier this month. Utility-scale solar capacity increased by 3,409 MW through April this year, up from 3,064 MW in the year-ago period.
New wind capacity fell to 1,967 MW from 5,161 MW in the same periods.
Looking ahead, FERC expects solar to make up nearly 70% of “high probability” capacity additions from May 2023 through April 2026.
There is about 77,860 MW of solar in the high probability category, nearly 20,000 MW of wind and about 12,730 MW of gas-fired generation. FERC also expects 2,200 MW of nuclear capacity and almost 700 MW hydroelectric generation to come online by April 2026.
FERC said about 113,700 MW of total high probability capacity is coming online in that period, offset by about 44,100 MW of power plant retirements, including about 24,930 MW of coal-fired generation.
The outlook for capacity additions comes amid concerns at FERC about grid reliability, partly driven by a shift from fossil-fueled generation to intermittent wind and solar generation. At the same time, FERC and others are working to spur transmission development to bolster reliability and deliver renewable energy from remote areas to where it can be used.
Only 77 miles of high-voltage transmission lines started operating in the United States in the first four months this year, down from 675 miles in the same period in 2022, according to the report. However, about 2,350 miles of high-voltage transmission, mostly 500-kV lines, have a high probability of coming online by September 2025. Most of that transmission is being developed in the Midwest and West.
On the gas pipeline front, FERC approved 20 pipeline projects in the first four months this year that can deliver 7,646 million cubic feet per day, up from 15 projects designed to carry 2,868 MMcf/d approved in the year-ago period, according to the report.
