Dive Brief:

• Natural gas' share of the United States' generation mix is expected to rise as coal fades, but observers expect this to be a regional phenomenon as areas with more progressive policies – California in particular – move on to embrace more renewable energy. 
• SNL Energy reports that coal generation could drop from almost a third of the country's electricity production to roughly 18% by 2030, while gas, solar and wind all rise in response.
• But an expected increase in gas-fired generation won't include California, where "gas is the new coal," and will instead focus on the Southeast and Northeast regions, observers say.

Dive Insight:

UBS is estimating that coal's share of United States electricity production could drop from about 33% to 18% by 2030, while at the same time natural gas share rises from about 32% to 39%. Renewables, including solar and wind, will rise from 6.4% to almost 17%.

But according to SNL, those broad-based numbers mask regional differences in policy and resources, as the Pacific coast states focus more on renewables and on the east coast more gas capacity is sought. Speaking at a Platts power conference last week, Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an executive director with UBS Investment Research, asked "Where is this gas generation coming from? ... it's all eastern — it's in the Southeast. It's in the Northeast. It's not in California. California gas is the new coal."

Last month, California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) signed Senate Bill 350, officially moving the state to a 50% renewables by 2030 mandate. The legislation also mandates a 50% energy efficiency increase for existing California buildings by 2030, and gives the state energy agencies the authority to review existing programs, alter regulations and re-channel funding.

While gas' share of power production has grown since 2011, in part due to the state's drought, it fell this year and is expected to continue to decline, according to SNL. Gas demand in the state is expected to decline by 1.7 billion cubic feet per day.

That doesn't mean California utilities are abandoning gas, however. Southern California Edison got regulatory approval last week to purchase more than 1,300 MW of new gas generation, but its proposal was met with stiff opposition from renewables and efficiency advocates, who say the utility could have purchased clean energy and storage.

On the east coast, two major pipeline proposals have been floated to send more gas into New England. Kinder Morgan last has just filed plans with federal regulators for a $5 billion, 1.3 Bcf/d expansion of its Tennessee Gas Pipeline system, the Northeast Energy Direct project, designed to move gas supplies from northern Pennsylvania to New York and New England markets. 

And the Access Northeast project is being developed by Spectra Energy, along with National Grid and Eversource Energy, and would expand natural gas access in New England by up to 1 Bcf/d. 

But the need for those projects has been questioned by Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey (D). Last week, her office released a study casting doubt on the need for more natural gas pipeline capacity in New England, finding additional investment in demand response and efficiency is the cheapest and cleanest option to meet power demand. 

The study found $146 million in net savings and 1.86 million tons of carbon dioxide avoided would be avoided if demand management is used rather than adding pipeline capacity.