ERCOT: Texas will have sufficient generation for spring, summer

Dive Brief:

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) has sufficient generation to meet expected peak demand requirements in the upcoming spring and summer, according to the grid operator's latest resource adequacy forecasts.
The grid operator has more than 76,600 MW of generation resources available to serve expected peak demand of about 62,000 MW during the spring and 69,000 MW in the summer.
Platts reports that extreme summer temperatures could potentially trigger planned outages, but ERCOT believes that to be an extremely unlikely scenario.

Dive Insight:

The grid operator for most of Texas has issued seasonal forecasts finding the region will have sufficient generation under all but the most punishing of weather scenarios.

"In a broad range of scenarios, ERCOT expects to have enough generation available to serve peak demand this spring," said Ken McIntyre, vice president of Grid Planning and Operations.

ERCOT released the Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for the upcoming spring, identifying more than 76,600 MW of generation resources available to serve expected peak demand of about 62,000 MW.

The grid operator also released a preliminary report for the summer, estimating summer peak demand at about 69,000 MW, based on 12-year average weather. Peak demand in 2014, a mild summer for Texas, reached 66,454 MW on Aug. 25. Currently, ERCOT estimates nearly 77,000 MW of available generation resources for this summer’s peak.

"We continue to monitor a number of factors that could affect power plant availability and demand over the summer peak this year," McIntyre said.

Available operating reserves under the current scenarios could range from more than 5,000 MW, based on the current forecast and typical outage rates, to less than 500 MW under a scenario in which demand exceeds the forecast by about 2,300 MW at the same time outages exceed the historical average by more than 2,400 MW.

That scenario reflects the extreme conditions experienced in summer 2011, the operator said. But Platts reports ERCOT officials estimate the chances of resorting to planned blackouts are about 1%.