Dive Brief:

• Natural gas was the dominant generation fuel in the first quarter of 2016, continuing to push out coal plants as the two fuels have essentially swapped places in the last year. Gas generated 32.1% of the United States power in the first quarter of the year, compared with coal's 28.7%.
• According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's June Short Term Energy Outlook, renewable generation hit 9% in the early months of the year, up from 6.9% in the same period last year.
• The agency is forecasting total power generation this year to average 11,140 GWh/day, a decline of 0.5% compared with 2015.

Dive Insight:

Natural gas closed out 2015 as the primary generation fuel in the United States, and new data from the EIA indicates that trend is continuing.

"Sustained low natural gas prices have led power generators to significantly expand the share of electricity produced by that fuel," EIA said. The agency expects natural gas to supply 34.4% of total generation in 2016, up from 32.7% last year. "This increase is displacing coal generation, whose share of generation is expected to fall from 33.2% last year to 29.9% in 2016."

First quarter gas generation rose from 28.6% in 2015 to more than 32% so far this year, while coal fell from 36% to about 29% during the same period. Last year, coal still generated slightly more electricity than natural gas, but that trend is expected to reverse this year. Coal plants generated 1,356,057 GWh of electricity last year, compared with gas' 1,335,068 GWh.

Looking ahead t the summer, EIA forecasts U.S. retail power sales the residential sector will decline slightly, by 0.1%.  But the agency said daily average residential sales for all of 2016 will be 1.6% below 2015 levels.

Sales of electricity to the commercial and industrial sectors are expected to grow by 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively this year.

Total generation this year will decline about 0.5% from 2015, averaging  11,140 GWh/day. EIA is forecasting an increase in natural gas prices next year, which the agency expects will reduce the fuel's generation share to 33.3% in 2017 and raise coal's share rising to 30.9%.

The retail price of electricity in the U.S. will average 13 cents/kWh this month, EIA said. New England will have the highest regional price, at 18.4 cents/kWh, versus 11 cents in the East South Central region.

EIA said the U.S. residential electricity price averaged 12.7 cents/kWh in 2015 "and is expected to stay about the same in 2016 and then rise 2.5% to an annual average of 13.0 cents/kWh in 2017."