Dive Brief:
- Gas generation exceed coal in five of the first 10 months of 2015, and data from the final two are not available yet, according to new analysis released yesterday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
- While EIA said coal is "still expected to surpass natural gas" for total generation share last year, the final tally remains to be seen and highlights the remarkable shift led by lower gas prices and more stringent environmental regulations.
- Driven in large part by lower gas prices, EIA said wholesale electricity prices at major trading hubs were down between 27% and 37% in 2015, compared to the year before.
Dive Insight:
Coal was probably still king in 2015. But low commodity prices have left it an open question, with gas overtaking coal in five of the first 10 months last year. Data for November and December are still pending, though EIA says "for 2015 as a whole, however, coal is still expected to surpass natural gas as the most prevalent fuel used for electricity generation."
Regardless of the final tally, the speed of the transition is remarkable. Before 2015, gas generation had never surpassed coal but it did so last year in April, July, August, September and October.
Nuclear generation was the highest since 2010 (through October), EIA said, as low levels of outages led to high capacity factors. "Nuclear outages were less than 3% of capacity this summer and dropped to nearly zero during four days in August, the lowest levels on record," the agency said.
Gas and coal capacity factors moved in tandem, with coal-fired generators declining modestly in 2015, and capacity factors for natural gas-fired generators increasing, especially for combined-cycle plants. EIA said that on average, natural gas combined-cycle units across the country operated at capacity factor rates "consistently 5%-11% higher each month than either of the past two years."
Through October, capacity factors for combined cycle gas plants averaged 57%, "well above" the 49% averaged in the same period of 2014 and 2013.