Dive Brief:
- The new U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.52 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the 2015 winter, down from the 2014 winter’s $4.51 per MMBtu. The 2015 Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average $3.44 per MMBtu and $3.86 per MMBtu in 2016, down from 2014’s $4.39 per MMBtu.
- Total renewables used for electricity and heat generation are expected to grow 3.3% in 2015, with non-hydropower renewables generation increasing 3.9%. In 2016, total renewables for electricity and heat generation are expected to grow 4.8%, with a 6.6% increase in non-hydropower renewables.
- The U.S. residential retail electricity price increased 3.1% in 2014 and is expected to increase 1.1% in 2015 and 1.8% in 2016, EIA forecasted.
Dive Insight:
EIA attributes the lower winter natural gas price to an increased natural gas supply and a lower demand for natural gas heating.
Coal consumption for electricity was about the same in 2013 and 2014 and is expected to increase only 0.3% in 2015. The anticipated 0.8% increase in electricity demand will be met largely by lower-priced natural gas.
Significant shuttering of coal plants will begin in 2015 in response to implementation of the EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics Standards but be felt fully in 2016 when coal consumption will drop 1.4%.
Total U.S. oil production is expected to be 9.3 million barrels per day in 2015 and 9.5 million barrels per day in 2016.
Weekly regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.14 per gallon on January 12, the lowest since May 4, 2009, and are projected to average $2.33 per gallon for 2015, down from $3.36 per gallon in 2014.
