Dive Brief:
- New data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds global demand for coal will continue to rise over the next five years, and will top 9 billion tonnes by 2019.
- Global coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019, the report found, boosted by an oversupply and cheap commodity prices.
- China remains the world's largest user, producer and importer of coal. Despite the country's efforts to reduce its dependence on coal, the IEA report found Chinese coal consumption will not peak during the five-year outlook period.
Dive Insight:
Global demand for coal is still rising, but the pace seems to have eased. The IEA's annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report found coal demand will grow at an average rate of 2.1% per year through 2019, but that's slower than 2013 report's forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013.
“We have heard many pledges and policies aimed at mitigating climate change, but over the next five years they will mostly fail to arrest the growth in coal demand,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said. “Although the contribution that coal makes to energy security and access to energy is undeniable, I must emphasize once again that coal use in its current form is simply unsustainable. For this to change, we need to radically accelerate deployment of carbon capture and sequestration.”
China remains the deciding factor, according to the IEA. The country has begun a campaign to diversify its energy supply and reduce its energy intensity, but the report found that despite these efforts, and under normal macroeconomic circumstances, Chinese coal consumption will not peak during the five-year outlook period.