Electricity consumption patterns in the United States are changing, meaning utility programs aimed at shifting or reducing that demand must also change, according to an August report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Most utilities in the U.S. operate summer-peaking electricity systems, and most demand flexibility programs appropriately target that load, the report says. But the electrification of space and water heating has the potential to shift some utilities to winter-peaking, and “a more fulsome vision” for building demand flexibility calls for programs to deliver a wider array of services.
“Programs and rates will need to evolve in order to support that vision,” LBNL researchers wrote in The State of Demand Flexibility Programs and Rates. “In particular, program designs would need to change if the electrification of end uses shifts peak demand into winter mornings in cold regions.”
The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy in 2021 published research predicting growing numbers of utilities will begin to see electricity demand peak during the coldest winter months. The report concluded that as air conditioners and buildings become more efficient, summer loads may drop. And with natural gas furnaces being replaced with electric heat pumps, and solar production lower during the winter, grid stress during the coldest months will increase.
The New York Independent System Operator in July said it expects the state to shift to a winter-peaking grid around 2036. “This drastic change is largely driven by the electrification of essential energy-consuming systems, primarily building heating and electric vehicle charging,” the ISO said.
New England typically sees peak demand occur during the summer, but by 2033, the region’s grid operator expects the summer and winter peaks to be roughly equal — with the potential for higher winter peaks depending on weather, according to a May report.
LBNL’s research looked at 148 programs and 93 rates from 38 states and Washington, D.C. Wi-Fi thermostat or battery storage programs made up 84% of the programs, with the remainder a mix of thermal storage, building automation, heat pumps for space and water heating, and clothes dryers.
Regardless of the technology, the programs “generally target summer afternoon and evening peaks, though some do address winter peaks,” the report found. Battery programs “generally allow more events” than thermostat programs, “which likely reflects tradeoffs with occupant impacts,” researchers said.
Beyond the growth in winter demand, LBNL’s report also points to a wider array of services that demand flexibility can provide, including voltage or frequency support to aid renewables integration.
“A subset of our collected programs does address other electricity system needs — some programs call events during the winter, while a few programs and rates can potentially call events year-round,” the report says. “Moreover, we did not collect every program and rate, and we expect that other novel and emerging approaches exist.”
LBNL plans to host an Oct. 15 webinar to discuss the report’s findings.
