Solar energy production will grow by double digits this year and next as data center development and increased manufacturing drive higher U.S. electricity consumption, the Energy Information Administration estimated Wednesday.
U.S. electricity consumption will likely grow 2% in 2026 and another 2% in 2027, reaching “record levels,” EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. Total sales will grow to 4,211 billion kWh in 2027, the federal government’s energy data collection arm said in its forecast.
The growth will be led by the commercial sector, which will see electricity sales increase by 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, “accounting for 63% and 56% of the increase in electricity sales in those years,” EIA estimated.
Electricity generation “grows in line with electricity use,” EIA said in its forecast. Natural gas generation is expected to grow 2% this year and another 1% in 2027, while coal generation falls 8% and 6%, respectively. “As wind and utility-scale solar capacity continues to be added to the grid, we expect solar generation to grow by 21% in 2026 and by 18% in 2027, while wind generation grows 7% in 2026 and 5% in 2027,” EIA said.
Demand from the PJM Interconnection market accounts for nearly 45% of the total U.S. generation growth that EIA is expecting, “with natural gas generation driving the increase in 2026 and natural gas, coal, and wind generation driving the increase in 2027,” according to its report.
Solar growth is concentrated in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator markets, EIA said. This year, EIA said it expects added solar generation of 18 billion kWh in ERCOT and 13 BkWh in MISO, followed by an additional 20 BkWh in ERCOT and 11 BkWh in MISO in 2027.
“Although coal exports in our forecast increase compared with 2025, we forecast domestic demand for coal from the electric power sector will decline by 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, as natural gas and renewables generation in the Northwest and MISO regions increases,” EIA said.
