U.S. commercial sector electricity use grew 1% last year from 2019 levels, but the growth was driven by data center development in 10 states, according to the Energy Information Administration.
The agency expects electricity sales to the U.S. commercial sector will grow 3% this year and by 1% in 2025, largely driven by the development of large-scale computing facilities such as data centers and cryptocurrency operations, the EIA said in a June 28 report.
Commercial sector electricity demand in the 10 states with the most demand growth jumped 10%, or by a total of 42 billion kWh, between 2019 and 2023, according to the EIA. Demand in the 40 other states fell 3%, or by 28 billion kWh, in the same period.
Virginia, Texas, South Carolina and Arizona led the way with the highest commercial sector demand growth while Pennsylvania, New York, Illinois and New Jersey had the largest losses in commercial sales, the EIA said.
Sales in North Dakota jumped 37% in the four-year period, the most of any state, according to the agency.
The EIA said it revised its outlook upwards for commercial sales after reviewing information from utilities and grid operators.
The agency made the largest changes to the South Atlantic and West South Central census divisions, which account for 40% of U.S. commercial demand. The South Atlantic division includes eight states from Maryland to Florida and the District of Columbia, and the West South Central division includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas.
The EIA expects commercial sales in the South Atlantic division will increase 5% this year and 2% in 2025, and by 3% and 1% in the same years in the West South Central division.
The U.S. power sector produced 5% more electricity in the first half this year compared to the same period in 2023, driven by a hotter-than-normal start to summer and growing commercial sector demand, the EIA said in its short-term energy outlook, released July 9.
The EIA said it anticipates U.S. generation growth will slow to 2% in the second half of this year from the second half of 2023 as commercial sector demand growth slows because of the agency’s expectation that space cooling use by the sector will be similar to the same period in 2023.
