Dive Brief:

• A new report released by the Sierra Club estimates that carbon emissions from the U.S. power sector will total 1,983 million metric tons (MMT) this year, the lowest level since 1995, Smart Grid News reports. 
• Total economy-wide emissions this year will be approximately 5,357 million metric tons, below the level proposed by the 2009 Waxman-Markey bill which the United States Congress did not pass.
• There have been almost 42,000 MW of coal-fired generation retired since 2010, and more than 15,000 MW this year alone (equal to the capacity that the United States retired between 1990 and 2009).
• Coal replacement strategies could accelerate Clean Power Plan goals by up to five years, the report concluded, depending on the mix of natural gas and renewable energy used.

Dive Insight:

When United States representatives head to Paris at the end of this month for international climate talks, they will be sitting in a strong position due to the increased phase-out of coal and the long-term outlook for declining carbon emissions, according to the Sierra Club's report, supported by Bloomberg Philanthropies. 

"Coal retirements are helping to deliver on the Clean Power Plan, the centerpiece of US climate leadership on the international stage at December’s climate change conference in Paris," the report said. "By locking in coal retirements early and replacing their capacity with cleaner fuels, we are helping to prove that more ambitious climate action is possible."

Coal plant retirements remain among the biggest trends transforming the utility sector. Factors driving retirements include the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan, which calls for a nationwide 32% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from power plants, and historically low natural gas prices. 

The environmental group also credited its Beyond Coal campaign with pushing for the retirements. Beginning in 2010,  the advocacy group began working with Bloomberg Philanthropies to retire a third of coal generation by this year. And the group said that as it has approached that goal, Bloomberg Philanthropies pledged an additional $30 million — on top of $50 million pledged in 2011 — to the Beyond Coal campaign.

The new funding enables the Sierra Club to expand its Beyond Coal to a new target. By 2017, the group wants to lock in the retirement and replacement of half of the U.S. coal fleet with clean energy no later than 2025.

"Once we count those coal megawatts already retired, announced, or proposed to retire, only 70,711 MW remain to hit the Beyond Coal campaign’s 166,000 MW target," the group said in its report.

The analysis was completed by Rhodium Group, and considered replacing one half of the US coal fleet by 2025 under two replacement scenarios: 100% zero-carbon clean energy and 100% natural gas. The report showed replacing half the coal fleet with clean fuels would reduce 2025 carbon emissions to
between 1,563 MMT and 1,791 MMT, depending on the replacement mix.

"In short, we could accelerate EPA’s 2030 CPP target by as much as 5 years depending on
whether we replace coal plants likely to retire in the coming years with zero-carbon renewable energy or
natural gas," Sierra Club said.