IHS Markit raises global solar installation forecast by 14% over Chinese solar boom

Dive Brief:

IHS Markit has raised its forecast for global photovoltaic installations in 2017 by 14%.
The consulting group predicts 90 GW of solar panels will be installed this year with most, 45 GW, of those installations in China.
The solar boom in China is consuming much of the world’s PV supplies and putting upward pressure on prices but is not affecting U.S. as much as other regions, IHS said in its report.

Dive Insight:

IHS said the “significant upward revision” of its 2017 forecast is the result of larger than anticipated activity in China in the first half of the year, activity that IHS sees continuing into the third quarter.

Based on an analysis of connection statistics, IHS estimates that 26 GW of installations were completed in China in the first half of the year and another 12 GW are slated to be installed in the third quarter. IHS had previously expected installations to peak in the second quarter.

IHS says the Chinese boom is consuming a large portion of global PV supplies, which will result in increased prices and lead times into 2018, which is delaying solar projects in Japan, India and Latin America.

The United States, however, is another case. In the spring, U.S. panel manufacturer Suniva petitioned the International Trade Commission seeking relief from what it sees as a flood of low priced PV modules from Asia.

While an outcome in Suniva’s favor might raise prices for U.S. solar consumers over the long run, in the short term it is serving to insulate the U.S. from the pressure other regions are feeling from China’s solar boom. IHS says that in advance of possible trade action, solar developers in the U.S. have been buying tariff-free modules manufactured outside of Taiwan and China, which are unlikely to be used to serve demand in China market.