Dive Brief:

• Cheap natural gas is forcing coal generation offline in Kentucky, potentially leading the state into compliance with the federal government's Clean Power Plan despite rampant political opposition to the EPA's proposed carbon regulations.
• If the state replaces 3,900 MW of coal retirements with clean energy, Inside Climate News reports, the state could "accidentally" comply with emissions goals the EPA set for the state, even though many of the state's leaders have balked at submitting a compliance plan for the regulations.
• Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has urged states not to submit compliance plans, and while current Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear (D) has said he favors submitting a plan his term is up this year and all major candidates for his post have said they do not.

Dive Insight:

Despite much furor over the war on coal and whether Kentucky should submit a CPP compliance plan, it appears the state may wind up making significant reductions to greenhouse gas emissions simply by letting the market run its course.

According to Inside Climate News, some 3,900 MW of the state's 18,000 MW of coal capacity (as of 2012) had been retired. Based on a compliance tool created by M.J. Bradley, that would put the state on track to meet an 18% reduction by 2030, assuming the generation is replaced with clean energy sources.

"Kentucky could be well in compliance with the targets" Amlan Saha, a vice president at M.J. Bradley and Associates, told Inside Climate News. 

There is some irony there, considering Kentucky Sen. McConnell has urged states to disregard the federal government's plan. So far, however, only Oklahoma has formally said it will not submit a compliance strategy, though leading candidates for the Kentucky governorship have opposed submitting a plan as well. In March, West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomlin (R) signed a bill giving state legislators final veto power over any compliance plan going to the EPA, and Texas legislators have indicated they do not want to submit a compliance plan either.

McConnell in March published an opinion piece in the Lexington Herald-Leader calling for states to "think twice" before developing compliance proposals for the Clean Power Plan.

McConnell's piece did not sit well with some governors, however. Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) responded by stating in a letter of his own: "I disagree. Climate change is real. It's a threat to humanity. We should be working harder to address it, not rolling back efforts to do so."